Most Likely Super Tuesday Upsets:
Hillary Clinton is currently at 95% to win the Democratic nomination — her highest odds to date. If the Super Tuesday market odds hold, we expect Clinton’s odds to win the nomination to hit 98% by the end of the night.
The General Election:.
Rubio’s last hope: One possible way forward for Rubio would be for him to win delegates in the Texas primary — he needs to get 20% of the vote total – and breathe life into a potential upset in the Florida primary on March 15. Sanders is at 99% to win the Vermont primary, and has seen marked gains in Oklahoma primary market. Trump is at 19%. The most volatile markets right now are:
The Florida primary market currently shows Trump withy 91% odds to win, and Rubio trailing with 8% odds. Sanders finds himself at 47% odds to win in Oklahoma as of this afternoon — that’s up 33% over the past two days.
Assuming there are no surprises in any of the bevy of states holding contests tonight, we’ll end the night with voters focused on a likely matchup of Clinton and Trump in the general election. Even if Sanders wins the Massachusetts primary on Tuesday – he currently has 27% odds — he likely would not break 10% odds to win the nomination.
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold substantial leads in nearly all of the Super Tuesday primary markets. Republican perspective, the Democrats are trading at 63% odds to win the Presidency, with Republicans at 37% odds.
But even if he wins in Oklahoma and Vermont, it won’t be enough for him to make gains in the hunt for the nomination. Pivit has been tracking the odds for the current slate of candidates to win the Presidency, and Clinton holds the lead.
Sanders to Win MA Primary
Cruz to Win AR Primary.
Additionally, Trump leads all Super Tuesday primary markets (except for Texas) with an average of 80-90% odds to win. Trump is now at 80% odds to win the GOP nomination, with Rubio and Cruz trailing at 16% and 2%, respectively.
Looking at it from the Democratic vs. Both candidates are expected to rack up major victories, according to the prediction market, and add to their delegate counts. If both Rubio and Cruz manage to walk away with delegates tonight from the Lone Star State, then Florida becomes key.
Trump to Win TX Primary
Clinton is at 63% odds to win the Presidency, with Trump a distant second at 27%. But if Rubio doesn’t win any delegates in the TX primary, Cruz could come out with the lead in delegate count; some in the political class say that arguably gives him a proxy to challenge Trump.
In Texas, Cruz holds a major lead to win his home state — at 81% odds. It will take a Herculean effort to put Florida in play for Rubio, and that effort starts tonight in Texas.
Volatile markets are a canary in the coal mine for potential upsets; we’ll be watching these markets in particular as polls close to see if Trump, Sanders or Cruz can pull off the win.
Donald Trump has pulled way ahead of Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz following his increasingly big wins in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. But there are also some deeper insights in the prediction market data:
But even that path is a tough one for the Florida senator.
Cruz’s last hope: While he is the favorite to win in Texas, according to the prediction market data, Cruz does not have strong odds to win the nomination. The silver lining states for Sanders: Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont. Does this make her inevitable? There appears no clear path for Bernie Sanders to claim the nomination, at least according to the data on the market