Horse Racing Systems: 5 That Work

To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.

In that spirit. This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.

Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.. This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.

Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!

In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.

Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.

In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races. None of them work.

None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.

Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.

For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60’s and 70’s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.

However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.

This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.

Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.

Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.

Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.

The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.

Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.

Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.

For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.

First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. My study suggests that’s not the case.

How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race

Betting on Sports – 6 Winning Rules by Don Stark

People all over the world love to bet on sports. To be done properly (and profitably), here are some very crucial rules one must follow. While some do it just for recreation or to make watching a TV game more exciting, there are others who will always wager on their favorite team or player, period. Then, before making your wager(s), check each book and always take the best number on your particular event. Stick with 2% and never double up and chase lost money.

Rule #6 – Seek a Professional – There is a wealth of valuable information available on the Internet but you have to take the time to do proper and thorough research. Stick to straight action only. If you’re on medication, drugs, or alcohol, or if you’re just in an upset or disturbed mood, be smart and don’t play until you’re back to 100%. After checking several well-established and solid options, decide on 2 or 3 of them, and then divide and deposit your initial bankroll equally amongst each one. If you bet 3 teams straight action and only win 2 of the 3, you’ve just made money. If you’re sick, you go see a doctor. One of the best ways to win at sports wagering is to maybe find your own special niche and then follow it closely. Hook them all together in a parlay and you must win all 3, or you’re sunk.

. If betting on sports is more than just a recreational pastime, or if you just don’t have the time or resources for Rule #5, seriously consider employing the services of a professional sports handicapper. The payoff odds and point spreads are not carved in stone throughout the industry, and on any given day, they can vary greatly between different shops. Drugs (legal or otherwise) and alcohol can cloud your judgment and will lead you into making decisions that you normally wouldn’t make. If you’re serious about winning more bets than you lose, you should listen to a professional.

Rule #5 – Perform Due Diligence – As a bettor, you normally have the opportunity to do research well in advance of having to make that final decision on a wager. Never wager more than you can afford to lose, so be honest with yourself on what you can comfortably set aside for recreation or otherwise.

Rule #3 – Spend Some Time Shopping – This can be compared to shopping for a new car or even for groceries. Always look for the best prices or the best numbers. Research several sports books thoroughly and compare the numbers.

Rule #4 – DO NOT Play Parlays or Teasers – Parlays, teasers, and other exotic wagers are offered for a reason. Whichever group you fall into, sports wagering must be treated the same as any other financial investment. To be successful at anything, your mind needs to be 100% clear and functional. If you set aside $1,000 for gambling, your individual bets should be in the $20 range and no more. If you’re winning, the 2% per wager automatically increases as your bankroll increases. Unexplainably, wins and losses often times run in streaks, so slowly increase your bets on a hot streak and back off on cold streaks. However, there is an elite third group out there who bet sports with one and only one purpose in mind…to make money.

Whether you’re a recreational player or actually doing it solely for a profit, may you always have more winners than losers, and always remember to have a lot of fun along the way, but stick to the rules. For example, if you live in California and become an expert on the PAC 10, you can increase your chances of winning by focusing on just your niche. If it were really possible for anyone to consistently pick 3 out of 3, parlays (and teasers) wouldn’t be offered by the sports books. Conversely, if you’re on a losing streak and the bankroll goes down, the size of your bets will decrease accordingly. Yes, you can bet a 3-team parlay, and if you win, it normally pays in the vicinity of 6 to 1 in football and basketball. Rule #1 – Use Proper Money Management – This rule is the one that is most neglected and explains why Vegas keeps on building all of those multi-billion dollar casinos. It’s a proposition for losers only, so don’t do it. Watching ESPN and/or reading opinionated articles by sports writers on the Internet is not the proper way to do your homework. Over the course of a year, that ½, 1, or even 2 point difference will come into play many times, and trust me…it will add up to a lot of money.

Rule #2 – Never Gamble Under the Influence – To coin a phrase, “Speak when you’re drunk and you’ll probably make the biggest speech you’ll ever live to regret.” The same sensible theory applies to betting on sports. That gives you an automatic advantage over the bookie, so use it to the fullest extent. Secondly, never wager more than 2% of your total bankroll on any single wager. Most people just don’t have the time to properly study things like past statistics, line moves, trends, angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers, and much, much more. Since you’re reading this, you’re probably part of that majority

Lions’ upset over Saints completes 20,000-to-1 parlay, paying $100K

“He was frustrated since I wasn’t getting it right away.”. Her card had the Cardinals and Bengals as four-point favorites, and they won by 23 and 10, respectively.

For William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich, this weekend wasn’t a good one, to say the least. “So I thought it was strange when I looked at it [Tuesday] morning and saw that I won.”

Polia said she has loved sports her entire life — a Celtics logo tattoo on her hip is a testament to her love of Boston, which she left because she got sick of the winters.

Thanks to one of the most improbable betting stories, that might happen sooner rather than later.

Aside from the Giants as five-point underdogs, Polia’s card had the Vikings as a five-point favorite, and they won by 21. Even though she was getting higher odds for picking against the spread, she said she spent time just picking who she thought was going to win the game instead.

One of the biggest long shots in betting history will be cashed on Wednesday afternoon when Tayla Polia gets paid $100,005 for her $5, 15-leg NFL parlay that came through this week.

“I remembered that I picked the  Giants and they lost,” Polia said. A progressive pot of $170,782 was split by 17 people.

Bogdanovich said the $5 15-team parlay card for $100,000 has hit before. Polia also was required to pick the over or under on that game. She bet that both teams would score more than 45 points. “Of course, he didn’t believe me.”

An hour later, Polia, with $20 in her account, risked $5 on the parlay. They beat the Saints, 35-27.

The closest game she had was the Steelers, who were six-point favorites on the card, beating the Broncos by a touchdown after spotting Denver a 17-point lead. The Patriots and  Seahawks were 14-point favorites and they both won by 17. The Chiefs, as an eight-point favorite, crushed the Ravens by 20.

The final game of the parlay was on Monday night, where she had the Lions as a three-point underdog. Polia had the Giants as a five-point underdog.

Polia said, upon hearing the news, she fell to the floor of the law firm where she works in disbelief and, minutes later, said she was going out to lunch.

Her dream, she says, is to make Vegas a pit stop on the way to owning a beach house in California.

The against-all-odds story gets better: Polia said this is only the second bet she has placed in her life.

“I somehow drove back home to tell my boyfriend in person,” Polia said. She had the Falcons as a three-point underdog, and the Texans and Redskins as one-point underdogs; they won and covered. The Panthers beat the Giants by three. William Hill paid out a couple times in Delaware, where betting on the cards is permitted.

The Chargers, as a two-point favorite, beat the Dolphins by 16.

Polia then called up William Hill and the person on the other line informed her that she was picking against the spread. She cashed in by being on the right side of the point spread in 14 games and correctly picking the over in the  Steelers/ Broncos game.

“On Sunday morning, my boyfriend and I were sitting on the couch talking about how spreads worked,” Polia said. Not only did Polia’s payout come through, but a 15-game parlay where bettors just have to pick the winners also hit. They scored 61.

The 26-year-old Polia, who had just moved to Las Vegas two months ago, got 20,000-to-1 odds on the parlay card on betting firm William Hill’s mobile site. The Packers won by 10 as a three-point favorite